Beyond sports · Kalshi

Locked spreads

Politics, economics, weather, culture: every open Kalshi event, checked every few minutes for a basket of outcomes that pays more than it costs whatever happens, after Kalshi's fee. Sizes come from the live order book, so the dollars shown are what you could actually put in at those prices.

?New here? What this page meansShow

Each Kalshi contract pays $1 if it comes true. In an event where only one outcome can win, the prices should add up to about $1. When they don't, you can buy every side and keep the difference. Locked means buying NO on every outcome: only one can win, so at most one NO loses. Locked if one must win means buying YES on every outcome, which only pays if the list covers every possibility, so read the rules. We rank by return per year, because a small gap that settles this week beats a bigger one that ties your money up until next November.

Kalshi: A US-regulated exchange where you buy yes/no contracts on events, including sports, that pay $1 if they happen.
Contract: One share of an outcome. It pays $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn't.; Example: Buy "Chiefs win" at 62¢. If they win you get $1 (38¢ profit). If not, you lose your 62¢.
Basket: Buying several outcomes in the same market so you win if any one of them hits.

Full beginner guide →

Open now

0 locked · 5 if one must win

Best right now

+$254.58

What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?

Events checked

6,796

updated 12:10 AM ET

Locked if one must winPolitics· settles in 820 days

What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?

During Trump's term

+$254.58

on $50.42 · 505% · 225%/yr

One set costs

15¢ + 1.0¢ fee

Always pays

if exactly one outcome wins

Size available

305 sets

before the price gets too high

What to buy (8 legs, 305 contracts each)

YES District of Columbia0.7¢ → 2.0¢
YES Puerto Rico1.6¢ → 2.1¢
YES Canada2.3¢ → 3.1¢
YES Greenland1.9¢ → 2.3¢
YES Venezuela2.2¢ → 2.6¢
YES Guam0.9¢ → 1.7¢
YES Colombia0.5¢ → 1.9¢
YES Cuba5.0¢ → 10¢

Open on Kalshi and read the rules ↗Last leg closes Jan 20, 2029

Kalshi doesn't say whether this list covers every possibility. If nothing on it can win (no "Other" or "None" option and an outsider wins), every leg loses. Check the rules first.

Locked if one must winFinancials· settles in 1531 days

Who will be the next COO of Goldman Sachs?

In 2030

+$55.76

on $144.24 · 39% · 9%/yr

One set costs

68¢ + 4.1¢ fee

Always pays

if exactly one outcome wins

Size available

200 sets

before the price gets too high

What to buy (5 legs, 200 contracts each)

YES Dan Dees14¢
YES Marc Nachmann14¢
YES Ashok Varadhan15¢
YES Kim Posnett11¢
YES Matt McClure14¢

Open on Kalshi and read the rules ↗Last leg closes Dec 31, 2030

Kalshi doesn't say whether this list covers every possibility. If nothing on it can win (no "Other" or "None" option and an outsider wins), every leg loses. Check the rules first.

Locked if one must winSocial· settles in 800 days

Where will Putin and Zelenskyy next meet?

Before 2028

+$11.51

on $57.49 · 20% · 9%/yr

One set costs

78¢ + 4.9¢ fee

Always pays

if exactly one outcome wins

Size available

69 sets

before the price gets too high

What to buy (9 legs, 69 contracts each)

YES Hungary4.0¢ → 36¢
YES Switzerland9.0¢ → 52¢
YES Turkey19¢ → 33¢
YES China5.0¢ → 35¢
YES Germany7.0¢ → 53¢
YES United States10¢ → 55¢
YES Ukraine5.0¢ → 55¢
YES Russia7.0¢ → 52¢
YES United Arab Emirates12¢ → 49¢

Open on Kalshi and read the rules ↗Last leg closes Dec 30, 2028

Kalshi doesn't say whether this list covers every possibility. If nothing on it can win (no "Other" or "None" option and an outsider wins), every leg loses. Check the rules first.

Locked if one must winPolitics· settles in 820 days

Who will Trump nominate as U.S. Ambassador to Greece?

During Trump's term

+$228.80

on $1,525 · 15% · 7%/yr

One set costs

82¢ + 5.0¢ fee

Always pays

if exactly one outcome wins

Size available

1,754 sets

before the price gets too high

What to buy (10 legs, 1,754 contracts each)

YES Gus Bilirakis28¢ → 72¢
YES Nicole Malliotakis6.0¢ → 50¢
YES Josh Huck5.0¢ → 53¢
YES John Catsimatidis7.0¢ → 51¢
YES John Georges7.0¢ → 53¢
YES Michael Psaros5.0¢ → 52¢
YES Dean Spanos5.0¢ → 52¢
YES Geoffrey Pyatt6.0¢ → 54¢
YES Debbie Matenopoulos4.0¢ → 52¢
YES John Kiriakou9.0¢ → 83¢

Open on Kalshi and read the rules ↗Last leg closes Jan 20, 2029

Kalshi doesn't say whether this list covers every possibility. If nothing on it can win (no "Other" or "None" option and an outsider wins), every leg loses. Check the rules first.

Locked if one must winElections· settles in 15776 days

Who will the next Pope be?

Before 2070

+$55.65

on $40.35 · 138% · 3%/yr

One set costs

39¢ + 2.5¢ fee

Always pays

if exactly one outcome wins

Size available

96 sets

before the price gets too high

What to buy (7 legs, 96 contracts each)

YES Pierbattista Pizzaballa4.5¢ → 7.4¢
YES Pietro Parolin5.8¢ → 10¢
YES Fridolin Ambongo3.3¢ → 6.9¢
YES Luis Antonio Tagle15¢ → 24¢
YES Matteo Zuppi3.8¢ → 9.0¢
YES Peter Erdo3.3¢ → 6.0¢
YES Anders Arborelius3.6¢ → 4.6¢

Open on Kalshi and read the rules ↗Last leg closes Jan 1, 2070

Kalshi doesn't say whether this list covers every possibility. If nothing on it can win (no "Other" or "None" option and an outsider wins), every leg loses. Check the rules first.

Before you buy

Buy every leg at once. If a price moves before you finish, the basket may no longer be locked. Use limit orders at the prices shown.
Fees are Kalshi's standard rate (7% × price × (1 − price)), rounded up. Some markets charge less; we never assume that.
Your money is tied up until the last leg settles. Check the date against what the same money would earn elsewhere.
Rules decide everything. Early settlement, cancelled events and rule changes are Kalshi's call. Read them on Kalshi.

Research and entertainment only, not financial advice. Prices change in seconds. 21+. Play responsibly.