Kalshi crypto vs the options market
Kalshi sells “Bitcoin above $X at 5 PM” contracts. The crypto options market (Deribit, where most Bitcoin and Ethereum options trade) already prices the chance of every one of those outcomes. We turn its prices into a win chance for each Kalshi contract, the same way we use Pinnacle's odds for sports, and flag contracts Kalshi sells for less after its fee.
Biggest gaps
2 contracts are priced below the options market right now. Pro shows which ones, the price to pay and a button to the market.
Try Pro freeBitcoin at Sat, Oct 24, 5:00 PM ET
Kalshi ↗| Above | Options market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi No |
|---|---|---|---|
| $81,250 | 6.0% | 12¢ | 89¢ |
| $81,000 | 15% | 21¢ | 80¢ |
| $80,750 | 34% | 35¢ | 66¢ |
| $80,500 | 55% | 52¢ | 49¢ |
| $80,250 | 73% | 69¢ | 32¢ |
| $80,000 | 85% | 81¢ | 20¢ |
| $79,750 | 91.7% | 89¢ | 12¢ |
| $79,500 | 95.5% | 93¢ | 8¢ |
| $79,250 | 97.4% | 95¢ | 6¢ |
Green: Kalshi sells it 3+ points below the options-market chance after its fee. Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks' real-time index (60-second average before the close); the options market uses Deribit's index. They track each other within a few dollars.
Ethereum at Sat, Oct 24, 5:00 PM ET
Kalshi ↗| Above | Options market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi No |
|---|---|---|---|
| $2,400 | 4.6% | 8¢ | 93¢ |
| $2,360 | 60% | 59¢ | 43¢ |
| $2,320 | 94.7% | 94¢ | 9¢ |
Green: Kalshi sells it 3+ points below the options-market chance after its fee. Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks' real-time index (60-second average before the close); the options market uses Deribit's index. They track each other within a few dollars.
Options traders bet billions on exactly how far Bitcoin and Ethereum will move and by when. Their prices are the sharpest read on those chances, the way Pinnacle is for sports.
From each option's implied volatility we get the chance of finishing above every price at Kalshi's close time, including the “smile” (big moves cost extra), then subtract Kalshi's fee.
Not a guarantee and not advice. Crypto moves fast; a gap can close in seconds, and the options market can be wrong too. Beta: the fair price is our model of the options market, so we only flag 3+ point gaps between 10¢ and 90¢, and this section isn't on the graded record yet.
Prices from Kalshi's and Deribit's public data. Not affiliated with Kalshi or Deribit. For information only, not financial advice. 21+.