Is your Kalshi combo worth it?
Paste a combo and we'll price every leg against the sportsbooks' fair odds, then tell you its real chance of hitting, how much markup is baked in, and what it costs you on average.
On Kalshi, open the combo and copy its link from the share button or your browser's address bar.
How combos lose
A combo is a parlay: every leg has to hit or you get nothing. The big payout looks tempting, but three things work against you at once.
Win chances multiply
Three legs that each hit 60% of the time don't hit 60% together. They hit 0.6 × 0.6 × 0.6 = 21.6%.
Five of them: 7.8%, about 1 in 13. One bad bounce in any game sinks the lot.
The markup compounds
Every leg is priced a little above its real chance. That cushion is how the other side gets paid.
On one leg a 3% cushion is small. Across four legs it multiplies to about 13%, and across six to 19%. You pay that on every combo, win or lose.
Fees bite cheap contracts harder
Kalshi's fee is about 7% × price × (1 − price). On a 60¢ contract that's under 3% of what you pay.
Combos are cheap contracts, and on a 10¢ one the fee is over 6% of your stake, before any markup.
See the math
Slide the number of legs and watch the chance of hitting fall while the expected loss grows.
Bars: expected loss by number of legs. Assumes each leg is priced 3% above its real chance (a typical cushion) plus Kalshi's fee.
What to do instead
- Buy the single legs that are actually underpriced. Spot Angle flags them on today's picks and in price alerts.
- If you still want a combo for fun, keep it to two or three legs, avoid same-game legs, and run it through the checker first.
- Size it like a lottery ticket: money you're fine losing.
Questions
What is a Kalshi combo?
A combo bundles several outcomes into one contract, like a sportsbook parlay. It pays $1 only if every leg happens. If one leg misses, the whole thing pays $0.
Why do combos usually lose money?
Three reasons stack up. Win chances multiply, so even good legs make a long shot. Each leg's price carries a small cushion above its real chance, and those cushions multiply too. And Kalshi's fee takes a bigger share of cheap contracts, which is what combos are.
Can a combo ever be a good buy?
Rarely, but yes: if every leg is underpriced on its own, the combo can be too. That's why the checker prices each leg against the sportsbooks first. Usually you're better off buying the underpriced legs by themselves.
For information only, not financial advice. Prices change constantly; check Kalshi before you trade.